Alphanume
GuideTool 03 · 18 models

How to read
the futures
pricing tool.

A working guide. The textbook cost-of-carry leg of every model, what the implied solvers are actually telling you, and how the bond-futures CTD machinery is wired. Read it once and keep it open while you price.

Open the tool →
01

The thirty-second workflow

Three steps. Pick a model from the index on the left, or open the palette with Cmd K (Ctrl K on Windows). Fill the ledger — spot, the relevant carry inputs, settlement and expiry — plus the market futures price if you want an implied output. Read the headline, the metrics block, and the sensitivity grid on the right.

The ledger only surfaces inputs the active model uses. Switching from a theoretical to an implied model keeps everything you already typed.

Every input mutates the URL. Copy the address bar to share a setup, or use the permalink button under Model notes.

02

Inputs, by group

Inputs are grouped by purpose. The common group applies almost everywhere; asset-class groups appear only when the active model needs them.

Common

Spot
The underlying cash price. Index level for equity, fx rate for FX, commodity spot for goods.
Rate
Risk-free (or domestic, for FX). Continuous compounding, decimal — 0.045 = 4.5%/yr.
Settlement
Today, or the value date the trade prices from. ISO YYYY-MM-DD.
Expiry
The futures delivery date. Tenor T is computed as ACT/365 between settlement and expiry.
Market futures price
The observed quote. Only consumed by the implied-X models. Leave blank if you only want the theoretical leg.

Equity

Dividend yield (q)
Continuous dividend yield, decimal. For broad indices, 1.3–2% is typical. For non-payers, 0.
Discrete dividends
Schedule as `2026-09-15:18.50; 2026-12-15:19.10`. The discrete-dividend model PVs each cashflow at r back to settlement.

FX

Foreign rate
r_f, continuous decimal. The non-base-currency rate.
Swap points
Market quote in points. Use the Forward-from-points model when you have a dealer quote.
Points scale
1/pip. Default 10000 for G10 majors; use 100 for yen pairs and gold.
Cross-currency basis
Bps wedge applied to the domestic leg. Models the post-2008 CIP deviation.

Commodity

Storage mode
continuous (%): u is a rate added to r; absolute ($/yr): u is converted to a continuous rate by dividing by spot.
Storage (u)
When in continuous mode. Decimal.
Storage (abs)
When in absolute mode. Per unit per year (e.g. $/bbl/yr or $/oz/yr).
Convenience (y)
Continuous decimal. The scarcity premium — positive y reduces the futures price below pure financial carry.

Bond futures

Deliverable basket
One bond per line, comma-separated: coupon, maturity, price. Coupons typed as percent (4.25) are auto-converted to decimal.
Notional coupon
0.06 for US Treasury (TY/FV/US), 0.04 for Bund, 0.03 for Gilt, 0.06 for JGB.
Futures price
Quoted contract price per 100 notional.
Repo rate
Annualized financing rate to delivery, decimal.
Days to delivery
Calendar days from settlement to the futures first delivery.
CTD criterion
`max IRR` (industry standard) or `min net basis`. Both should pick the same bond except in stressed markets.

Calendar spread

Asset class
Picks the carry formula: r−q (equity), r_d−r_f+basis (fx), r+u−y (commodity), repo (bond).
Front / back
Two contracts on the same underlying. Front expiry < back expiry.
Front / back price
The market quotes for each leg. Optional — without them you get the theoretical spread only.
03

Theoretical vs implied

Every cost-of-carry model in this tool comes in two flavours. The theoretical leg takes carry inputs and produces a fair-value futures price. The implied leg takes a market futures price and backs out one of the carry inputs.

The implied output is the one a trader actually reads. “The implied dividend yield on the Dec ES future is 1.42%” tells you what consensus thinks dividends will do, in a single number. Same shape for implied repo (financing tightness), implied xccy basis (post-CIP wedge), and implied convenience yield (physical-market scarcity).

The math is direct inversion of the carry equation — no solver needed. Each implied model prints the formula in its Note line so you can sanity-check the arithmetic.

04

The bond futures tab

The deliverable basket is pasted as text: one bond per line, coupon, maturity, price. The CF for each is computed from the standard PV-at-notional-yield formula — set the notional coupon to match the contract spec (6% US Treasury, 4% Bund, 3% Gilt, 6% JGB).

Gross basis is cash − futures × CF. Net basis subtracts carry (coupon income to delivery minus financing on the cash leg). Implied repo solves for the financing rate that makes the cash-and-carry trade flat; the maximum across the basket is the cheapest-to-deliver.

The CTD report puts it all in one table, ranked by your chosen criterion, with the switch margin to the runner-up. A small switch margin means the CTD is unstable — even small repo or futures price moves can change which bond delivers, and the futures DV01 inherits that instability.

Futures DV01 is reported as CTD DV01 ÷ CF. Use it as the hedge ratio when trading the basis against cash.

05

Calendar spreads

One model, four asset classes. Pick the asset class and the tool uses the right carry formula automatically. Feed it two expiries and (optionally) two market prices, and read the dislocation — market spread minus what carry says the spread should be.

The implied Δ carry shows the differential between the two tenors. For commodities, that's the slope of the convenience curve. For equities, the term structure of the implied dividend. For FX, the curve of the implied xccy basis. The same readout, everywhere.

06

Model families at a glance

The full index sits behind the Search models button (Cmd K).

Equity index
Continuous-q and discrete-dividend forwards. Implied dividend yield, implied repo. A basis decomposition that splits the spread into carry vs dividend drag.
FX forwards
CIP forward with optional cross-currency basis. Forward from market swap points. Implied xccy basis. One-line carry & roll readout.
Commodity
Cost of carry with storage (continuous or absolute $/yr) and convenience yield. Implied convenience from a market price. Two-contract roll yield.
Bond futures
Conversion factor table. Gross basis, net basis, implied repo per bond. Full CTD report with switch margin and futures DV01.
Calendar spread
Asset-class-aware. Theoretical spread under the right carry formula, dislocation to market, implied Δ carry across the two tenors.
Next

Open the tool and switch through three or four models on the same inputs to watch how the headline and the grid respond. The bond-futures CTD report is the one most worth getting comfortable with.

Open the tool →