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Systematic Event-Driven Trading — cover
Alphanume Research · Vol. I · ~109 pages

Systematic Event-Driven Trading

A Practitioner's Framework for Shorting Dilution, SPACs, and Corporate Actions

Author
Alphanume Research
Published
2026
Rating
4.6 / 5 · 34 reviews
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In-browser reader only. No PDF download.

About the book

Most of what moves a stock is noise. A small slice of it is filed, dated, and disclosed weeks in advance. This book is about the slice you can query.

Part I sets the foundations: why events move prices, what counts as an event, the mechanics of the short side, and how to build evidence that survives out of sample. Part II walks five specific event types end to end, covering equity offerings, ATM programs and shelf registrations, de-SPACs, lock-up expirations, and convertible or toxic financing. Part III shows how the events combine into a single short book you can actually run, including position sizing, drawdown behavior, and the temperament the work demands.

Written for the practitioner who already knows how to read a 10-Q and wants the structure to turn that fluency into a repeatable, queryable process.

Contents

  1. 01
    Why Events Move Markets
    • Price as a Consensus of Information and Expectation
    • What Counts as an Event
    • Scheduled, Disclosed, and Therefore Queryable
    • How to Read This Book
  2. 02
    The Case for the Short Side
    • Who Is Forced to Act
    • Structural Underperformers
    • The Honest Counterweight
  3. 03
    The Mechanics of Selling Short
    • Locates and the Borrow Market
    • General Collateral vs. Hard-to-Borrow
    • Borrow Fees as a Daily Cost of Carry
    • Recall and Buy-In Risk
    • Margin, Short Proceeds, and Dividend Liability
  4. 04
    Building Systematic Evidence
    • Event Windows and Study Design
    • Abnormal vs. Raw Returns
    • Survivorship and Delisting Bias
    • Look-Ahead Bias and Point-in-Time Data
    • Borrow-Cost-Adjusted Returns
    • Reading a Result Honestly
  5. 05
    Dilution: Equity Offerings
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  6. 06
    ATM Programs and Shelf Registrations
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  7. 07
    De-SPACs and Post-Merger Float Dynamics
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  8. 08
    Lock-Up Expirations
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  9. 09
    Convertible and Toxic Financing
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  10. 10
    From Single Event to Portfolio
    • Combining Event Signals
    • Overlapping Signals on One Name
    • Position Sizing and Concentration Limits
    • Rebalancing Cadence
  11. 11
    Managing a Multi-Strategy Short Book
    • Tracking Sleeve Ownership
    • Capital Allocation Across Event Types
    • Correlation Between Sleeves
    • Aggregate Borrow-Cost Budgeting
  12. 12
    Risk, Drawdown, and Temperament
    • Short Squeezes and Crowded Borrow
    • The Negative-Skew P&L Path
    • When to Size Down or Stand Aside
    • Closing Thoughts
  13. 13
    Appendix A: Data Sources
    • Price Data
    • Dilution Event Data
    • Filings (Everything Else)
    • A Note on Substitutes
  14. 14
    Appendix B: Glossary

Reviews

4.6 / 5 · 34 reviews
  • mike5 / 5Jun 2, 2026

    👍

  • Rebecca W.5 / 5Jun 2, 2026

    Honestly bought this on a whim and stayed up way too late finishing it. Not really my world but it made sense the whole way through.

  • jpark4 / 5Jun 1, 2026

    good read

  • Andrew5 / 5Jun 1, 2026

    Recommended by a friend at work and i can see why. The middle chapters are where it really clicks.

  • lurker225 / 5Jun 1, 2026

    👍👍

  • Sandra L.4 / 5May 31, 2026

    Some of it went over my head if im honest, but the parts i did follow were genuinely interesting. Will read again in a few months.

  • Tom5 / 5May 31, 2026

    worth it

  • midwestdad3 / 5May 30, 2026

    Bought after seeing it mentioned on twitter. A bit denser than i expected but the author clearly knows the material. Three stars only because im not the target reader, not because it's bad.

  • Jess5 / 5May 30, 2026

    great

  • Ravi5 / 5May 30, 2026

    Im a software guy not a trader and i still got a lot out of this. The way it breaks down who is selling and why is just good systems thinking.

  • Olivia5 / 5May 29, 2026

    🔥

  • kevin4 / 5May 29, 2026

    solid. would have liked a bit more on position sizing but everything else covered well

  • Maria H.5 / 5May 29, 2026

    Came in skeptical, left with a notebook full of things to look up. The end of chapter notes were really helpful.

  • dave5 / 5May 29, 2026

    👍 recommend

  • Priya S.5 / 5May 29, 2026

    Came back to leave a second review after rerunning some of the screens on my own data. Buying the next one too whenever it comes out.

  • J. MarshEquity vol trader5 / 5May 28, 2026

    The chapter on ATM programs reframed how i think about secondary supply. knew the mechanics already but never connected them to the borrow side like this.

  • deltahedge5 / 5May 12, 2026

    borrow fee section alone was worth it

  • Daniel R.Buy-side analyst4 / 5Apr 29, 2026

    Solid framework. Some of the dilution stuff I already traded, but the de-SPAC float section was new to me. Wish there were a few more worked examples.

  • vol_surface5 / 5Apr 16, 2026

    honestly didnt expect to like the short side framing this much. not sure id run it myself but the evidence chapter is the most honest backtest writeup ive read in a while

  • PriyaQuant developer5 / 5Apr 3, 2026

    Clear and practical. The point-in-time data warning saved me from a lookahead bug in my own pipeline.

  • M. Tan5 / 5Mar 23, 2026

    great

  • theta_gang3 / 5Mar 11, 2026

    decent read but a lot of it i already knew from being in these names. the lockup chapter was the strongest part for me

  • Chris5 / 5Feb 27, 2026

    Bought it expecting another short selling hype book. Got an actual process instead. The temperament chapter at the end hits different.

  • quant_kidStudent5 / 5Feb 14, 2026

  • A. OkaforResearcher5 / 5Feb 2, 2026

    The way it separates abnormal vs raw returns is something I will be stealing for my own research notes.

  • borrowfee4 / 5Jan 21, 2026

    good overview of the toxic convertible stuff. felt a little thin on small cap microstructure but otherwise strong

  • Sam5 / 5Jan 19, 2026

    Read it in two sittings. Probably wont trade most of these myself, but understanding who is forced to sell changed how I read filings.

  • K. NguyenPM, multi-strat5 / 5Jan 15, 2026

    coming from QG. best 100 pages on this stuff yet. data sources appendix is underrated too

  • shortvol_995 / 5Jan 12, 2026

    no fluff. finally a book that admits when a trade does not work

  • MarcusIndependent trader4 / 5Jan 9, 2026

    Useful structure even if youre not a dedicated short seller. I trade long only and still got a watchlist out of it.

  • gamma_scalper5 / 5Jan 7, 2026

    the SPAC unlock timeline section is gold

  • Tomás5 / 5Jan 5, 2026

    Surprised how much of it applies outside shorting. Knowing the dilution calendar helps my long entries too.

  • EJ3 / 5Jan 3, 2026

    ok. well written but a bit basic if youve already been trading events for a few years. would still recommend to someone newer

  • deepvalue_danSoftware engineer5 / 5Jan 1, 2026

    didnt think a quant framework book could be readable. this one is. the failure modes sections are the real value

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