Systematic Event-Driven Trading
A Practitioner's Framework for Shorting Dilution, SPACs, and Corporate Actions
- Author
- Alphanume Research
- Published
- 2026
- Rating
- 4.6 / 5 · 19 reviews
In-browser reader only. No PDF download.
About the book
Most of what moves a stock is noise. A small slice of it is filed, dated, and disclosed weeks in advance. This book is about the slice you can query.
Part I sets the foundations: why events move prices, what counts as an event, the mechanics of the short side, and how to build evidence that survives out of sample. Part II walks five specific event types end to end, covering equity offerings, ATM programs and shelf registrations, de-SPACs, lock-up expirations, and convertible or toxic financing. Part III shows how the events combine into a single short book you can actually run, including position sizing, drawdown behavior, and the temperament the work demands.
Written for the practitioner who already knows how to read a 10-Q and wants the structure to turn that fluency into a repeatable, queryable process.
Contents
- 01Why Events Move Markets
- Price as a Consensus of Information and Expectation
- What Counts as an Event
- Scheduled, Disclosed, and Therefore Queryable
- How to Read This Book
- 02The Case for the Short Side
- Who Is Forced to Act
- Structural Underperformers
- The Honest Counterweight
- 03The Mechanics of Selling Short
- Locates and the Borrow Market
- General Collateral vs. Hard-to-Borrow
- Borrow Fees as a Daily Cost of Carry
- Recall and Buy-In Risk
- Margin, Short Proceeds, and Dividend Liability
- 04Building Systematic Evidence
- Event Windows and Study Design
- Abnormal vs. Raw Returns
- Survivorship and Delisting Bias
- Look-Ahead Bias and Point-in-Time Data
- Borrow-Cost-Adjusted Returns
- Reading a Result Honestly
- 05Dilution: Equity Offerings
- How the Mechanism Works
- Why It Is Value-Destructive
- The Evidence
- The Systematic Framework
- Failure Modes
- 06ATM Programs and Shelf Registrations
- How the Mechanism Works
- Why It Is Value-Destructive
- The Evidence
- The Systematic Framework
- Failure Modes
- 07De-SPACs and Post-Merger Float Dynamics
- How the Mechanism Works
- Why It Is Value-Destructive
- The Evidence
- The Systematic Framework
- Failure Modes
- 08Lock-Up Expirations
- How the Mechanism Works
- Why It Is Value-Destructive
- The Evidence
- The Systematic Framework
- Failure Modes
- 09Convertible and Toxic Financing
- How the Mechanism Works
- Why It Is Value-Destructive
- The Evidence
- The Systematic Framework
- Failure Modes
- 10From Single Event to Portfolio
- Combining Event Signals
- Overlapping Signals on One Name
- Position Sizing and Concentration Limits
- Rebalancing Cadence
- 11Managing a Multi-Strategy Short Book
- Tracking Sleeve Ownership
- Capital Allocation Across Event Types
- Correlation Between Sleeves
- Aggregate Borrow-Cost Budgeting
- 12Risk, Drawdown, and Temperament
- Short Squeezes and Crowded Borrow
- The Negative-Skew P&L Path
- When to Size Down or Stand Aside
- Closing Thoughts
- 13Appendix A: Data Sources
- Price Data
- Dilution Event Data
- Filings (Everything Else)
- A Note on Substitutes
- 14Appendix B: Glossary
Reviews
4.6 / 5 · 19 reviews- J. MarshEquity vol trader5 / 5May 28, 2026
The chapter on ATM programs reframed how i think about secondary supply. knew the mechanics already but never connected them to the borrow side like this.
- deltahedge5 / 5May 12, 2026
borrow fee section alone was worth it
- Daniel R.Buy-side analyst4 / 5Apr 29, 2026
Solid framework. Some of the dilution stuff I already traded, but the de-SPAC float section was new to me. Wish there were a few more worked examples.
- vol_surface5 / 5Apr 16, 2026
honestly didnt expect to like the short side framing this much. not sure id run it myself but the evidence chapter is the most honest backtest writeup ive read in a while
- PriyaQuant developer5 / 5Apr 3, 2026
Clear and practical. The point-in-time data warning saved me from a lookahead bug in my own pipeline.
- M. Tan5 / 5Mar 23, 2026
great
- theta_gang3 / 5Mar 11, 2026
decent read but a lot of it i already knew from being in these names. the lockup chapter was the strongest part for me
- Chris5 / 5Feb 27, 2026
Bought it expecting another short selling hype book. Got an actual process instead. The temperament chapter at the end hits different.
- quant_kidStudent5 / 5Feb 14, 2026
- A. OkaforResearcher5 / 5Feb 2, 2026
The way it separates abnormal vs raw returns is something I will be stealing for my own research notes.
- borrowfee4 / 5Jan 21, 2026
good overview of the toxic convertible stuff. felt a little thin on small cap microstructure but otherwise strong
- Sam5 / 5Jan 19, 2026
Read it in two sittings. Probably wont trade most of these myself, but understanding who is forced to sell changed how I read filings.
- K. NguyenPM, multi-strat5 / 5Jan 15, 2026
coming from QG. best 100 pages on this stuff yet. data sources appendix is underrated too
- shortvol_995 / 5Jan 12, 2026
no fluff. finally a book that admits when a trade does not work
- MarcusIndependent trader4 / 5Jan 9, 2026
Useful structure even if youre not a dedicated short seller. I trade long only and still got a watchlist out of it.
- gamma_scalper5 / 5Jan 7, 2026
the SPAC unlock timeline section is gold
- Tomás5 / 5Jan 5, 2026
Surprised how much of it applies outside shorting. Knowing the dilution calendar helps my long entries too.
- EJ3 / 5Jan 3, 2026
ok. well written but a bit basic if youve already been trading events for a few years. would still recommend to someone newer
- deepvalue_danSoftware engineer5 / 5Jan 1, 2026
didnt think a quant framework book could be readable. this one is. the failure modes sections are the real value
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