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Systematic Event-Driven Trading — cover
Alphanume Research · Vol. I · ~109 pages

Systematic Event-Driven Trading

A Practitioner's Framework for Shorting Dilution, SPACs, and Corporate Actions

Author
Alphanume Research
Published
2026
Rating
4.7 / 5 · 50 reviews
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About the book

Most of what moves a stock is noise. A small slice of it is filed, dated, and disclosed weeks in advance. This book is about the slice you can query.

Part I sets the foundations: why events move prices, what counts as an event, the mechanics of the short side, and how to build evidence that survives out of sample. Part II walks five specific event types end to end, covering equity offerings, ATM programs and shelf registrations, de-SPACs, lock-up expirations, and convertible or toxic financing. Part III shows how the events combine into a single short book you can actually run, including position sizing, drawdown behavior, and the temperament the work demands.

Written for the practitioner who already knows how to read a 10-Q and wants the structure to turn that fluency into a repeatable, queryable process.

Contents

  1. 01
    Why Events Move Markets
    • Price as a Consensus of Information and Expectation
    • What Counts as an Event
    • Scheduled, Disclosed, and Therefore Queryable
    • How to Read This Book
  2. 02
    The Case for the Short Side
    • Who Is Forced to Act
    • Structural Underperformers
    • The Honest Counterweight
  3. 03
    The Mechanics of Selling Short
    • Locates and the Borrow Market
    • General Collateral vs. Hard-to-Borrow
    • Borrow Fees as a Daily Cost of Carry
    • Recall and Buy-In Risk
    • Margin, Short Proceeds, and Dividend Liability
  4. 04
    Building Systematic Evidence
    • Event Windows and Study Design
    • Abnormal vs. Raw Returns
    • Survivorship and Delisting Bias
    • Look-Ahead Bias and Point-in-Time Data
    • Borrow-Cost-Adjusted Returns
    • Reading a Result Honestly
  5. 05
    Dilution: Equity Offerings
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  6. 06
    ATM Programs and Shelf Registrations
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  7. 07
    De-SPACs and Post-Merger Float Dynamics
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  8. 08
    Lock-Up Expirations
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  9. 09
    Convertible and Toxic Financing
    • How the Mechanism Works
    • Why It Is Value-Destructive
    • The Evidence
    • The Systematic Framework
    • Failure Modes
  10. 10
    From Single Event to Portfolio
    • Combining Event Signals
    • Overlapping Signals on One Name
    • Position Sizing and Concentration Limits
    • Rebalancing Cadence
  11. 11
    Managing a Multi-Strategy Short Book
    • Tracking Sleeve Ownership
    • Capital Allocation Across Event Types
    • Correlation Between Sleeves
    • Aggregate Borrow-Cost Budgeting
  12. 12
    Risk, Drawdown, and Temperament
    • Short Squeezes and Crowded Borrow
    • The Negative-Skew P&L Path
    • When to Size Down or Stand Aside
    • Closing Thoughts
  13. 13
    Appendix A: Data Sources
    • Price Data
    • Dilution Event Data
    • Filings (Everything Else)
    • A Note on Substitutes
  14. 14
    Appendix B: Glossary

Reviews

4.7 / 5 · 50 reviews

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